- The central bank will have a tough time avoiding a recession while raising rates, Jason Trennert told CNBC.
- The Strategas CEO added that inflation is too high for a soft landing to be realistic, unlike in 1994 when inflation was much lower.
- “It seems to me the operating assumption should be that you’re likely to get a recession in 2023.”
The Federal Reserve will have difficulty avoiding a recession while raising benchmark rates to combat inflation, according to Strategas CEO Jason Trennert.
Speaking with CNBC on Monday, he said inflation is too high for a soft landing to be realistic. The central bank will announce its next decision on rate hikes after the conclusion of its policy meeting this Wednesday.
“There’s been very few instances in which inflation got to something like 8 or 9% where the Fed was able to bring it down without causing a recession,” Trennert said.
He added that comparing the current environment to 1994, when the Fed stuck a soft landing amid a tightening cycle, isn’t accurate because inflation was only about 3%.
“It seems to me the operating assumption should be that you’re likely to get a recession in 2023,” Trennert said. A typical recession sees earnings drop by 30%, which isn’t “a particularly great development for stocks,” he added.