Three Man Weave’s Ky McKeon is diving in with three best bets, including a Big 12 affair and an ACC “Toilet Bowl.”
So, check out the top college basketball odds, best bets and picks for Wednesday.
Three Man Weave’s Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Ky is targeting from Wednesday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
By Ky McKeon
Texas Tech currently sits alone in the Big 12 basement. The Red Raiders are 0-7 in league play, a record that would have been unfathomable just a few short weeks ago.
But Tech’s winless start belies its true ability.
Four of its seven losses have come by six points or less. The Red Raiders had a 13-point lead at TCU before losing by six, nearly took down Kansas in Lubbock, lost in overtime to Oklahoma and fell short by just two points at rival Texas.
If a couple of things break a different way, Tech’s conference standing looks mighty different.
Tonight is TTU’s best remaining chance to get in the win column. West Virginia, no slouch itself, is the most “vulnerable” of Tech’s remaining opponents, and the Red Raiders have one of the best home courts in all of college basketball.
Tech’s style also gives it an edge tonight, especially on the defensive end, where it deploys a “no-middle” philosophy. The Red Raiders’ focus on this end is to take away the middle of the floor inside the arc — no easy buckets inside.
They force opponents to be jump shooters and dare them to beat them with contested shots.
That date, WVU is the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big 12; the Mountaineers shot just 29.8% from deep in conference play.
WVU needs to attack the rim, win the glass battle and get to the free-throw line to score. Tech is the best team in the Big 12 at defending without fouling, and newly-healthy transfer Fardaws Aimaq’s presence inside has improved its overall rebounding.
Aimaq has had three games to shake the cobwebs off after missing the beginning of the season, so we should see a better version of the former WAC Player of the Year tonight.
The spot heavily favors Texas Tech tonight, and the Red Raiders should be hungry for their first Big 12 win.
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Fordham vs. St. Bonaventure
By Ky McKeon
Sometimes simple handicapping is the best handicapping. Sometimes home and away against-the-spread trends matter.
At least, that’s what I’m hoping for tonight in Olean.
St. Bonaventure has always been a tough place to play under head coach Mark Schmidt, but this year, the Bonnies are taking it to another level.
Combine their success at home with their utter hopelessness on the road, and you get one of the most Jekyll & Hyde teams in college basketball.
The Bonnies are 9-1 at home this year, both straight up and against the spread. They’re covering their home games by over five points per contest.
Away from Olean in true road games, the Bonnies are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread with a -10.2 cover margin.
There must be some sort of magic in that part of New York.
Traveling to Olean is difficult, even for a team like Fordham that resides in the same state. A trip from the Bronx to Olean will run you about 5.5 hours on the road.
The Rams are 0-10 straight up and 1-9 against the spread the past 10 matchups against St. Bonaventure. They haven’t beaten the Bonnies in Olean since March 2013, nearly a decade ago.
While this Fordham team is better than in years past, the programs are still on different levels.
Scoring can be difficult in a hostile environment, and that will likely be the case for Fordham, which comes in with the A-10’s worst offensive efficiency numbers in conference play.
The Rams have notched just a 41.7% effective field goal percentage against league opponents, which should continue against a solid Bonnies defense.
The Bonnies rarely make mistakes on the offensive end, especially at home. And their shooting has been light-years better in the friendly confines of the Reilly Center.
Expect the good times to keep rolling for St. Bonaventure at home as it looks to continue its dominance over Fordham.
Louisville vs. Boston College
By Ky McKeon
Tonight’s ACC matchup between Louisville and Boston College promises to be an ugly affair. From an efficiency and pace perspective — the two factors that influence scoring — this one is about as gross as it gets.
Louisville has been the ACC’s worst offensive team this season. In eight league games, the Cardinals have scored 0.886 points per possession. That would be good for about the fourth-worst offense nationally the Cards had scored at that rate all season.
BC hasn’t been much better, checking in as the ACC’s 12th-best offense, a good fact for a Louisville team that also struggles to stop opponents from scoring.
Louisville particularly struggles stopping foes in transition, where it allows 1,135 points per possession to rank 343rd in the country, per Synergy.
BC doesn’t really look to run, and when it does it isn’t pretty. Boston College ranks 259th in percentage of possessions finished in transition and 264th in points per possession in transition, per Synergy.
Louisville has slowed its offensive pace in conference play, perhaps realizing its lack of talent compared to the rest of the ACC and moving the pace to a screeching halt to muddy games up.
BC, too, has played relatively slow in ACC play. In only four games all season has an Eagles game gone over 70 possessions (one of which was in overtime).
Finally, free throws can often be a spoiler to a sure-fire under bet, but they shouldn’t be much of a factor in this one.
Louisville does get to the line at a decent rate, but BC has been terrific this season at defending without fouling. Even when the Cards do get to the line, they convert at an ACC-worst 65.5%.
On the other end, BC rarely gets to the line.
All of that amounts to a pretty attractive under bet on what will surely be an ugly game.
Expect the possession count to hover around 65 in this contest and scoring to be sparse as both teams hoist up poor shots only for them to fall against the rim and/or backboard with a clang.